DEVELOPING — Updated Oct. 6, 2026: Tropical Depression Nine has formed over the southwestern Gulf and is forecast to strengthen quickly, potentially becoming a hurricane Thursday as it begins turning toward the northern Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In its first advisory, issued at 4 p.m. CDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center placed the depression near 22.1°N, 95.6°W, about 380 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and about 630 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were 35 mph, and the system was moving east at about 5 mph.
Forecast to strengthen quickly
NHC forecasts the depression to become a tropical storm by early Wednesday and reach hurricane strength Thursday. The agency’s initial intensity forecast reaches 100 mph Friday afternoon before the system moves inland, but that is a forecast — not an observed wind speed or a guaranteed landfall intensity.
Forecasters expect the system to pass north of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula Thursday before turning northeast Friday. The depression is then expected to accelerate toward the northern Gulf Coast Friday into early Saturday.
NHC emphasized that there is significant uncertainty over exactly where the system will make its northeast turn, how quickly it will move toward the coast and how strong it will become. Residents should not focus on a single forecast point.
Louisiana to Florida Panhandle urged to prepare
NHC said there is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm-surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Hurricane or tropical-storm watches could be required Wednesday, and residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle were urged to monitor forecast updates and make sure hurricane plans are ready.
Heavy rainfall is also expected along the central U.S. Gulf Coast Friday into the weekend, bringing the possibility of flash flooding, urban flooding and isolated river flooding.
No coastal watches or warnings were in effect in Advisory 1.
Zark News will update this developing story
The forecast can change substantially as NOAA aircraft and additional weather observations feed new data into forecast models. Zark News will update this article as the National Hurricane Center issues new advisories.
Primary source: National Hurricane Center — Tropical Depression Nine Discussion No. 1 and Forecast Advisory No. 1.
