Voters head into Election Day with Democrats holding an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot — but that lead is shrinking, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos poll of the cycle, completed Monday.
Among registered voters, 46 percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district and 38 percent said the Republican. A week earlier, the same poll had Democrats ahead by 11 points. The late tightening means control of Congress may turn on a smaller number of close districts than the earlier numbers suggested — and on which side turns out more of its voters on Tuesday.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 32 percent among all respondents, unchanged from a week earlier and just above his record low of 31 percent, set two weeks ago.
The poll suggests the election is working as a referendum on the president. Among independents — the voters both parties are fighting hardest over — 50 percent said their congressional vote is a vote against Trump. Only 13 percent said it is a vote for him, and 33 percent said he is not a factor in their choice.
What to watch on Tuesday: whether the late tightening continues into the actual vote, and whether independents who say they are voting against the president show up in the numbers the poll expects. Polls measure intention; turnout decides the result.
The five-day nationwide online poll surveyed 1,765 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
