President Donald Trump said Thursday the United States will not launch new strikes on Iran before the midterm elections, after reports that the White House was weighing attacks sent oil prices and Treasury yields sharply higher.
“We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” He said the U.S. naval blockade of Iran “will remain in full force and effect.”
The statement followed a report in The Atlantic that the White House had directed the Pentagon to draw up limited strike options against Iran that could be used before the election. Trump has previously said he is weighing a “big decision” on how to conclude the war, now in its eighth month.
Oil markets swung on the news. Brent crude topped $105 a barrel earlier in the day before easing to about $104 after Trump’s post, up roughly 4% on the day, while West Texas Intermediate rose more than 3% to around $91.50. The day’s surge was driven by fresh Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with tanker traffic through the waterway reportedly falling to a fraction of pre-war levels.
Bond markets also reeled. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.37% intraday — its highest level since 2002 — before easing after Trump’s post. The yield has now risen in 10 of the past 12 trading days as investors bet on persistent inflation and more interest-rate hikes.
Stocks fell for a second straight day after closing at records on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 96 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 0.2% and 0.5% respectively.
What it means for ordinary people: national average gasoline prices remain above $4 a gallon, and diesel — which powers trucking, farm equipment and home heating — has climbed above $6 a gallon. Higher Treasury yields tend to push up mortgage rates, car loans and credit-card costs, raising the cost of borrowing for households. The Wall Street Journal reported that the war has become a political liability for Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterms, with some GOP candidates calling for steps such as suspending the federal gasoline tax to ease energy prices.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller hinted at a possible pause at the central bank’s upcoming meeting, while saying additional rate hikes may still be needed to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target.
This is a developing story.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Reuters, The New York Post.
