WASHINGTON — More than 51 million Americans had already voted by Saturday afternoon, three days before Tuesday’s midterm elections, passing the entire early vote from the last midterms with time still to spare, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
The lab put the total at 51.31 million as of 2:30 p.m. on Saturday, October 31. The Guardian, using the same data, reported more than 50.5 million early votes by Saturday morning. In the whole 2022 midterm cycle, 45.9 million people voted early. This year passed that mark before the weekend began, and ballots are still coming in by mail and at early voting sites in many states.
Texas shows the surge most clearly. More than seven million people in the state had voted early, about 1.5 million more than in the whole 2022 cycle, according to the Election Lab figures reported by The Guardian. In Harris County, which includes Houston, an Associated Press analysis found 862,700 people had voted by Wednesday, compared with 564,500 at the same point in 2022. In South Carolina, a state President Donald Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024, early voting was up 83 percent compared with 2022, according to the Associated Press.
In the states that record the party registration of early voters, registered Democrats have cast more ballots so far: 10.7 million Democrats compared with 7.8 million Republicans, according to the Election Lab data. That needs careful reading. Only about 27 states report this breakdown, and party registration does not show how a person actually voted. Many voters are registered with no party at all. Election experts say the early numbers show energy and turnout, not a result.
What is at stake on Tuesday is control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s second term. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are being contested. Republicans defend a 53 to 47 Senate majority, and Democrats need to gain four Senate seats and a small number of House seats to take control. Nonpartisan analysts generally give Democrats the better chance in the House, while the Senate fight is seen as very close, according to Reuters.
The high early turnout fits a campaign that has turned into a national fight over the cost of living, health care prices and the war in Iran. Trump has held more than 20 rallies in October, according to the Associated Press, and former President Barack Obama has campaigned for Democrats in Georgia, Ohio, Michigan and other close states. Both parties say the race will be decided by which side gets more of its supporters to vote in the final days.
Weather may also play a part. A large storm system is moving across the country this week, bringing flood risk to parts of the Southwest on Sunday and rain and possible severe thunderstorms to parts of the Plains and the South on Election Day, according to Fox Weather and the National Weather Service. Election officials say voters who still plan to vote early should check their local closing times, because early voting has already ended in some states and ends this weekend in others.
If you have a mail ballot still at home, election officials in most states advise returning it in person at this point rather than relying on the mail, so it arrives in time to be counted. Polls open across the country on Tuesday, November 3. For the Election Lab’s running tally, see Aju Press’s report on the 51 million figure.
