NEW YORK — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in an interview this week that his government has examined the “extreme tail risk” of U.S. military action against Canada, a rare public acknowledgment of how far tensions with Washington have unsettled the country’s closest ally.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney told The New York Times during his visit to New York for the U.N. General Assembly. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to.” He did not describe any specific preparations.
The remarks followed months of strain. President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested Canada should become the 51st U.S. state, though he ruled out using military force in January 2025 while raising the prospect of economic pressure. Bilateral trade talks collapsed in August; the United States then imposed a 50 percent tariff on about C$27.6 billion in Canadian goods, and Ottawa responded on Sept. 8 with retaliatory tariffs on a similar value of U.S. imports, including steel, dairy products and appliances.
Carney said the dispute had exposed the risks of relying too heavily on a single economic partner, arguing Canada must diversify rather than “wait to go back to some good old days.” His government is reviewing alternatives to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network and its planned purchase of 88 U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets, and pursuing closer economic ties with Europe.
Carney recalled an exchange in which Trump joked about the risks to Canada — “Maybe they’ll shoot you,” Carney recalled Trump saying — and said the episode “sort of sums up the relationship that we have.” He said the two leaders remain in frequent contact and that Canada remains open to a mutually beneficial agreement with Washington.