WASHINGTON — Democrats go into the final days before Tuesday’s midterm elections with a clear lead in national polling, as both parties make a last push for votes that will decide control of Congress. The RealClearPolling average of the generic ballot puts Democrats at 51.4% and Republicans at 43.2%, a lead of 8.2 points, with the vote set for Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election. According to The Wall Street Journal, Republicans now hold 219 seats and Democrats hold 214, with two vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take the majority. In the Senate, 35 seats are up for election. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and take control.
President Donald Trump’s standing is a central part of the picture. Recent polling puts his approval at about 37% to 38%, with disapproval at about 60% to 61%. A Marquette Law School poll carried out from Oct. 14 to 22 and released on Oct. 28 put his approval in Wisconsin at 37% and disapproval at 61%.
Poll director Charles Franklin linked the Democratic advantage to enthusiasm and certainty among their voters about turning out. He warned that small shifts could still change close races.
The cost of living is the top concern for voters, according to a Harris poll, named by 36% of those asked. In the same poll, 42% said they are worse off than a year ago. Corruption came second at 12%, followed by immigration at 9%, healthcare at 7% and taxes at 5%. It also found 76% believe officials prioritise self-enrichment.
The campaign has also set a record for spending. Midterm advertising spending has reached $11.2 billion, the highest ever for a midterm cycle. The Cook Political Report says the likeliest outcome is Democrats winning between 227 and 240 House seats. On the prediction market Polymarket on Friday, traders gave Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and a 69% chance of winning the Senate. Prediction markets are not polls, and they reflect bets rather than surveyed voters.
Key Senate races also favour Democrats in recent polling. A CNN poll in Texas put Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 43%. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed was at 49% and Republican Mike Rogers at 42%.
Trump campaigned on Thursday in Rock Hill, South Carolina, for Sen. Darline Graham, who faces Annie Andrews. He urged supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot and said, “We’re going to have a strong Tuesday night.” His weekend plans then changed more than once. The Republican National Committee said he had cancelled planned rallies in Salina, Kansas, on Saturday and Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday to hold tele-rallies in nearly 20 states in a 72-hour sprint. The Wall Street Journal later reported the White House said the Kansas and Iowa events were back on.
Democrats sent their biggest names to key states. Barack Obama campaigned in Georgia for Sen. Jon Ossoff. Kamala Harris mobilised voters in swing states, and Talarico rallied in Dallas. A same-name dispute in Alaska could delay the full Senate picture. For full polling details, see this report on the latest polls and odds.
