LAGUNA BEACH, Calif. — A coastal flood warning takes effect along the Southern California coast on Sunday and runs through Thursday, as king tides amplified by an El Niño pattern threaten to inundate low-lying neighbourhoods, erode already-battered beaches and test emergency defences from Orange County to San Diego, according to the National Weather Service and the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services.
The weather service’s warning covers the Orange and San Diego county coasts from 5 a.m. Sunday until 1 p.m. Thursday, with a broader coastal flood advisory along California’s coast from October 25 to 29. The highest water is expected Monday through Wednesday: Newport Beach’s adjusted forecasts call for peaks of 8.3 feet on Monday morning, 8.5 feet on Tuesday and 8.4 feet on Wednesday. Unusually warm ocean water and an El Niño-related Kelvin wave have pushed actual water levels 18 to 22 inches above astronomical predictions, the city says — meaning the tide arriving this week starts from a sea that is already higher than the charts assume.
A coast with no sand left to spare
The warning lands on a coastline that has already taken weeks of punishment. Successive hurricane-generated swells associated with Marie, Polo and Rachel stripped sand from beaches that normally absorb the surf, and offshore reefs that once broke incoming waves are providing less protection. “Waves are not breaking on those reefs that used to protect our coast a little bit… they’re just passing the reefs because it’s deep enough and then doubling up and hitting all the structures on the inside — and there’s no sand buffer,” Laguna Beach surfer and skimboarding champion Blair Conklin, who has been documenting the damage on video, told reporters, according to the New York Post.
Crews are mounting a $4 million emergency operation to reinforce a fractured 360-foot bluff near El Moro and Crystal Cove, using heavy equipment, rocks and sand-filled bags ahead of the tides. In Capistrano Beach, several homes along Beach Road have suffered structural damage, and six or seven have been red-tagged as uninhabitable and are undergoing demolition. In Newport Beach, officials have declared a local emergency, activated an emergency operations centre and deployed sandbags, protective berms and pumps, and plan to relocate roughly 100,000 cubic yards of sand to eroded beaches. Rail service in southern Orange County and San Diego County has been suspended for the coming workweek because of the forecast, according to local reports.
“Take them seriously”
“The warning and advisories are real. People should take them seriously because conditions are favourable for flooding,” said Doug George, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Forecasters say tides are expected to be higher still around Thanksgiving, Christmas and Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the coast could be hit hardest if exceptionally high tides coincide with strong winter storms.
What happens next
For residents of low-lying streets in Newport Beach, Dana Point, Laguna Beach and San Diego’s beach communities, the test comes at each morning high tide from Monday onward. Emergency crews will learn whether the sand, berms and pumps moved into place this weekend can hold back a sea running nearly two feet above prediction — and homeowners along stretches like Capistrano Beach’s Beach Road will learn what this winter still has in store for houses the ocean has already reached once.
Sources: National Weather Service coastal flood warning, Orange and San Diego counties, October 25-29, 2026; California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services advisory, October 24, 2026; Surfer, October 24, 2026 — King tides pummel California coast as super El Niño surges.
