BEIJING — The midterm defeat of President Donald Trump’s Republicans may strengthen China’s hand in trade talks with Washington, but Beijing is unlikely to celebrate the misfortune of a U.S. president whose successor could prove less friendly, according to Reuters.
U.S. voters angered by rising living costs, made worse by Trump’s trade wars with China and other countries, turned on his party in Tuesday’s vote and handed Democrats control of Congress, according to Reuters. That political weakening should make Trump more careful about unsettling a fragile trade truce with Beijing, some political analysts said, giving China a possible advantage in negotiations set to resume later this month.
Two big meetings ahead
Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen later this month, and again in Miami in December for the G20 summit, according to Reuters. At stake is a truce in a trade war that expires in January. The trade war last year came close to causing a major shock to the global economy before the two sides stepped back.
Trump’s friendly tone with Xi stands in contrast to his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, who repeatedly angered China with comments on human rights and a pledge that the United States would defend Taiwan if Beijing attacked, according to Reuters. Some of Trump’s possible Republican successors, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are also seen by analysts as more hawkish — meaning tougher — on China.
Why the next two years may not be smooth
Other analysts warned that the next two years may not be easy for Beijing. One risk is that Trump, blocked at home, becomes more aggressive in looking for foreign policy wins. A Democratic-controlled Congress may also push him harder to unblock arms sales to Taiwan, which Beijing calls a red line — a limit it says must not be crossed. Taiwan is the self-governing island that China claims as its own territory.
Washington’s divided politics also give Beijing room to strengthen itself and to build trade ties with other countries before a possibly less China-friendly U.S. administration takes power, some Chinese and Western analysts added, according to Reuters. Top among the concerns is an escalation of the war with Iran into a wider regional conflict, which would hit energy supplies that China depends on.
What happens next
The trade talks resuming later this month, and the two Trump-Xi meetings, will show whether the truce holds. If it expires in January without a new deal, tariffs — taxes on imported goods — could rise again on both sides, with effects on prices in the United States, China and the rest of the world.
Read the Reuters report: Trump’s political humbling signals short-term gain, long-term pain for China.
