Three of Europe’s top intelligence chiefs have warned in unusually blunt terms that Russia could test NATO within “months, not years.” Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia’s State Security Service, and Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service, told The Guardian in separate interviews over the past week that Moscow is preparing “more decisive actions in Europe.”
Koudelka was the most specific on timing and method: Russia could stage “a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign” against a NATO state within “months, not years,” according to Dagens, summarizing the Guardian interviews. He said Moscow’s approach was based on an “escalate to de-escalate” tactic, seeking to exploit weaknesses in Western countries and encourage them to reduce military and political support for Ukraine, according to TBS News.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament on Friday that classified assessments suggest Russia could test NATO with a drone or missile strike on alliance territory — to probe whether the Article 5 collective-defense commitment is genuinely operational or “more theoretical than practical,” according to Europe Says and InfoHandle.
French President Emmanuel Macron described Tusk’s warnings as “sound and well-documented” and convened an emergency meeting in Paris with political leaders to review the intelligence, according to TBS News.
The warnings land amid a widening catalog of Russian hybrid activity: unexplained fires at defense contractors, drone incidents near airports, and recruitment schemes targeting citizens in Denmark, Lithuania and France, according to InfoHandle. Last month’s foiled attack on Germany’s Leipzig-Halle airport is seen in European intelligence circles as an inflection point, according to The War Zone.
Russia has also imposed a nighttime curfew along its Estonian border near Narva from Sept. 16–26, banning people and vehicles outside towns within 5 km of the border, according to The War Zone.
Baltic officials offered a more cautious assessment: Mežviets said there are currently no signs of an imminent attack — “We do not see signs of an imminent attack,” he said, adding that the open question is whether Moscow has direct plans or is primarily trying to sow fear and uncertainty in Western societies, according to The Gaze.
Baltic leaders warned that overstating the threat could itself serve Kremlin objectives by amplifying fear, and Estonia’s foreign ministry urged the public to stay calm, according to TBS News.
Sources: Dagens, TBS News, InfoHandle, Europe Says, The Gaze, The War Zone