WASHINGTON — Democrats lead in all seven Senate battleground states in the final New York Times and Siena University polls, released on Sunday, November 1, two days before the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, according to the Siena Research Institute.
The largest Democratic lead is in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 53 percent to 42 percent. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 50 percent to 43 percent. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins by 51 percent to 45 percent. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted by 49 percent to 44 percent, and in Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 49 percent to 44 percent, with Libertarian David Graham at 4 percent, according to Siena.
The two closest races are in Alaska and Iowa. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 48 percent to 46 percent. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson by 48 percent to 47 percent, a gap Siena described as virtually tied.
"Our final U.S. Senate polls show Democrats with leads of 5 to 11 points in Kansas, Ohio, Maine, Texas and Michigan," said Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute. "While a blue wave, and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible."
The surveys were carried out between October 23 and November 1 among likely voters. Siena interviewed 610 voters in Alaska, 705 in Iowa, 736 in Kansas, 714 in Maine, 1,011 in Michigan, 717 in Ohio and 1,215 in Texas. The margin of sampling error ranges from 3.4 points in Texas to 5.0 points in Alaska, so the smallest leads could change once votes are counted. The full results are published by the Siena Research Institute.
Reporting on the same polls said only 38 percent of likely voters across the seven states approved of President Donald Trump’s job performance, and that Democrats held a nine-point advantage over Republicans on the cost of living. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988 and Kansas has not done so since 1932, which is why leads in those two states drew wide attention.
President Trump spent the final weekend campaigning in states Republicans have usually held with ease, including rallies in Iowa and Kansas, and he is due to give a closing speech on Monday at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington. Democrats, including House leader Hakeem Jeffries and former President Barack Obama, also made final appeals to voters over the weekend, according to BBC News.
More than 53 million people had already voted early or by mail by the weekend, passing the whole early vote from the 2022 midterms. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate are being decided on Tuesday. Polls are not results, and both parties say turnout on Election Day will decide who controls Congress for the last two years of President Trump’s term.
