Update — October 17, 18:00 UTC: Hurricane Trudy had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 12 p.m. CST advisory. Its center was about 140 miles south of Manzanillo, moving northwest at 10 mph. The center was forecast to pass near Mexico’s west-central coast Saturday night and Sunday. Some strengthening remained possible before weakening on Sunday.
Earlier reporting — October 16
MEXICO CITY — Hurricane Trudy, which rapidly intensified on Friday to major-hurricane strength with maximum winds near 120 mph (195 kph), is expected to pass very close to Mexico’s Pacific coast late on Saturday and into Sunday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center and Mexican authorities.
Forecasters do not expect a direct landfall. The head of Mexico’s weather agency, Fabian Vazquez, told a press conference the storm is expected to remain roughly 60 to 65 kilometres offshore — close enough that any shift toward shore would sharply increase the severity of its effects. He warned that the most critical conditions begin on Saturday, with severe winds and waves along a coast that has already been battered by storms in recent weeks.
The main danger is water. The NHC expects 4 to 8 inches of rain across Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 12 inches, and earlier guidance warned of up to 15 inches in parts of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. In steep terrain, that raises the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Large swells, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along the Pacific coast and the southern Baja peninsula, and a gap-wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring gale-force northerlies and very rough seas.
Mexico’s civil protection agency has urged residents to secure doors and windows, remove loose objects that could be thrown by the wind, and prepare for possible evacuations. Coastal watches and warnings are in effect. Forecasters noted that reconnaissance flights and satellite analyses produced differing wind estimates this week, adding uncertainty about the storm’s exact peak intensity and shortening lead time for local decisions.
Trudy’s rapid strengthening fits a pattern forecasters have flagged this season: a strong El Niño raises the chance of further rapid intensification in the eastern Pacific. A second system, Tropical Storm Simon, is weakening to a remnant low offshore and is not expected to compound Trudy’s effects.
What happens next: the storm’s closest approach comes Saturday night into Sunday. Even without landfall, officials say flooding in already-saturated areas is the likeliest source of harm, and they are asking residents to follow local civil protection instructions through the weekend. Track official advisories at the National Hurricane Center.
